华盛顿-美国总统唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)本周呼吁美联储一名州长因抵押贷款欺诈指控辞职，这是他的政府对华盛顿为数不多的独立机构之一施加更大控制的最新努力。
美联储州长丽莎·库克她说她不会离开岗位。
特朗普已经屡遭攻击美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔没有削减短期利率，甚至威胁要解雇他。鲍威尔，谁将在星期五发言在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的一次经济研讨会上，鲍威尔表示，美联储希望看到经济如何应对特朗普对进口商品征收的全面关税，鲍威尔表示，这可能会推高通胀。
鲍威尔的谨慎激怒了特朗普，他要求美联储削减借贷成本以刺激经济，并降低联邦政府为其债务支付的利率。特朗普还指责鲍威尔对美国央行25亿美元的建筑翻新项目管理不善。
解雇美联储主席或驱逐一名理事将威胁到美联储备受尊崇的独立性，这种独立性长期以来一直得到大多数经济学家和华尔街投资者的支持。以下是关于美联储的一些知识:
美联储对美国经济拥有广泛的权力。通过降低它控制的短期利率——这是它通常会做的当经济衰退时—美联储可以降低借贷成本，鼓励更多支出，加速增长和招聘。当它提高利率时——这是为了冷却经济和对抗通货膨胀——它会削弱经济并导致失业。
经济学家长期以来更喜欢独立的央行，因为它们可以更容易地采取不受欢迎的措施来对抗通胀，比如提高利率，这使得贷款买房、买车或买家电变得更加昂贵。
独立的美联储的重要性在20世纪90年代后被大多数经济学家所认可持续的通货膨胀高峰20世纪70年代和80年代初。人们普遍指责前美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯屈服于尼克松总统的压力，在1972年大选前保持低利率，从而加速了那个时代痛苦的通货膨胀。尼克松担心更高的利率会让他输掉选举，他以压倒性优势赢得了选举。
保罗·沃尔克最终在1979年被吉米·卡特总统任命为美联储主席，他将美联储的短期利率推至近20%的惊人高位。(目前是4.3%)。令人瞠目的利率引发了严重的经济衰退将失业率推高至近11%，并引发了大范围的抗议活动。
然而沃尔克没有退缩。到20世纪80年代中期，通货膨胀率已经回落到较低的个位数。沃尔克愿意给经济带来痛苦以抑制通胀，这被大多数经济学家视为独立美联储价值的一个重要例子。
解雇鲍威尔的努力几乎肯定会导致股价下跌和债券收益率飙升，推高政府债务利率，提高抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡债务的借贷成本。10年期美国国债利率是抵押贷款利率的基准。
大多数投资者更喜欢独立的美联储，部分原因是它通常能更好地管理通胀，不受政治影响，还因为它的决策更容易预测。美联储官员经常公开讨论，如果经济状况发生变化，他们将如何调整利率政策。
如果美联储受政治影响更大，金融市场将更难预测或理解其决策。
像鲍威尔这样的美联储主席由总统任命，任期四年，并且必须得到参议院的批准。总统还任命美联储管理委员会的其他六名成员，他们可以交错任职长达14年。
随着时间的推移，这些任命可以让总统大幅改变美联储的政策。前总统乔·拜登任命了现任七名成员中的四名:鲍威尔、库克、菲利普·杰斐逊和迈克尔·巴尔。拜登任命的第五位候选人阿德里亚娜·库格勒，意外下台8月1日，在她任期结束前大约五个月。特朗普已经已经提名他的首席经济学家斯蒂芬·米兰是潜在的替代者，尽管他需要参议院的批准。库克的任期将于2038年结束，因此迫使她下台将让特朗普更快任命一位忠诚者。
特朗普将能够在2026年5月鲍威尔任期届满时接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席。然而，美联储利率设定委员会的12名成员有权决定是提高还是降低利率，因此即使更换主席也不能保证美联储政策会按照特朗普想要的方式转变。
与此同时，国会可以通过立法设定美联储的目标。例如，1977年，国会赋予美联储“双重使命”，即保持物价稳定和寻求最大限度的就业。美联储将物价稳定定义为通胀率为2%。
1977年的法律还要求美联储主席每年在众议院和参议院就经济和利率政策作证两次。
最高法院今年早些时候在对其他独立机构的裁决中建议，总统不能仅仅因为不喜欢美联储主席的政策选择就解雇他。但是他可以“有原因地”解除他的职务，这通常被解释为某种错误或疏忽。
这可能是特朗普政府专注于建筑翻新的原因，希望它可以提供一个“有原因”的借口。然而，鲍威尔可能会反对任何罢免他的企图，此案可能会在最高法院结束。
Why the Federal Reserve's independence matters
WASHINGTON --President Donald Trump this week called on a Federal Reserve governor to resign over an accusation of mortgage fraud, the latest effort by his administration to exert greater control over one of the few remaining independent agencies in Washington.
Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cooksays she won't leave her post.
Trump hasrepeatedly attackedthe Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, for not cutting its short-term interest rate, and even threatened to fire him. Powell,who will speak Fridayat an economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, says the Fed wants to see how the economy responds to Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports, which Powell says could push up inflation.
Powell's caution has infuriated Trump, who has demanded the Fed cut borrowing costs to spur the economy and reduce the interest rates the federal government pays on its debt. Trump has also accused Powell of mismanaging the U.S. central bank’s $2.5 billion building renovation project.
Firing the Fed chair or forcing out a governor would threaten the Fed’s venerated independence, which has long been supported by most economists and Wall Street investors. Here's what to know about the Fed:
The Fed wields extensive power over the U.S. economy. By cutting the short-term interest rate it controls — which it typically doeswhen the economy falters— the Fed can make borrowing cheaper and encourage more spending, accelerating growth and hiring. When it raises the rate — which it does to cool the economy and combat inflation — it can weaken the economy and cause job losses.
Economists have long preferred independent central banks because they can more easily take unpopular steps to fight inflation, such as raise interest rates, which makes borrowing to buy a home, car, or appliance more expensive.
The importance of an independent Fed was cemented for most economists after theextended inflation spikeof the 1970s and early 1980s. Former Fed Chair Arthur Burns has been widely blamed for allowing the painful inflation of that era to accelerate by succumbing to pressure from President Richard Nixon to keep rates low heading into the 1972 election. Nixon feared higher rates would cost him the election, which he won in a landslide.
Paul Volcker was eventually appointed chair of the Fed in 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, and he pushed the Fed's short-term rate to the stunningly high level of nearly 20%. (It is currently 4.3%). The eye-popping ratestriggered a sharp recession, pushed unemployment to nearly 11%, and spurred widespread protests.
Yet Volcker didn't flinch. By the mid-1980s, inflation had fallen back into the low single digits. Volcker's willingness to inflict pain on the economy to throttle inflation is seen by most economists as a key example of the value of an independent Fed.
An effort to fire Powell would almost certainly cause stock prices to fall and bond yields to spike higher, pushing up interest rates on government debt and raising borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt. The interest rate on the 10-year Treasury is a benchmark for mortgage rates.
Most investors prefer an independent Fed, partly because it typically manages inflation better without being influenced by politics but also because its decisions are more predictable. Fed officials often publicly discuss how they would alter interest rate policies if economic conditions changed.
If the Fed was more swayed by politics, it would be harder for financial markets to anticipate — or understand — its decisions.
Fed chairs like Powell are appointed by the president to serve four-year terms, and have to be confirmed by the Senate. The president also appoints the six other members of the Fed's governing board, who can serve staggered terms of up to 14 years.
Those appointments can allow a president over time to significantly alter the Fed's policies. Former president Joe Biden appointed four of the current seven members: Powell, Cook, Philip Jefferson, and Michael Barr. A fifth Biden appointee, Adriana Kugler,stepped down unexpectedlyon Aug. 1, about five months before the end of her term. Trump hasalready nominatedhis top economist, Stephen Miran, as a potential replacement, though he will require Senate approval. Cook's term ends in 2038, so forcing her out would allow Trump to appoint a loyalist sooner.
Trump will be able to replace Powell as Fed chair in May 2026, when Powell’s term expires. Yet 12 members of the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee have a vote on whether to raise or lower interest rates, so even replacing the Chair doesn’t guarantee that Fed policy will shift the way Trump wants.
Congress, meanwhile, can set the Fed's goals through legislation. In 1977, for example, Congress gave the Fed a “dual mandate” to keep prices stable and seek maximum employment. The Fed defines stable prices as inflation at 2%.
The 1977 law also requires the Fed chair to testify before the House and Senate twice every year about the economy and interest rate policy.
The Supreme Court earlier this year suggested in a ruling on other independent agencies that a president can't fire the chair of the Fed just because he doesn't like the chair's policy choices. But he may be able to remove him “for cause,” typically interpreted to mean some kind of wrongdoing or negligence.
It's a likely reason the Trump administration has zeroed in on the building renovation, in hopes it could provide a “for cause” pretext. Still, Powell would likely fight any attempt to remove him, and the case could wind up at the Supreme Court.
