总统唐纳德·特朗普本周他再次呼吁降低利率通货膨胀读数低于经济学家的预期。
然而，美联储几个月来一直无视特朗普的压力，选择保持利率稳定因为政策制定者观察到潜在的关税引发的通货膨胀。
经济学家对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)表示，当央行行长们下个月开会时，这种姿态可能会发生变化，并预测利率将下调25个基点。
一个弱者工作报告本月早些时候，劳动力市场急剧放缓，这可能促使美联储降低借贷成本，以此作为抵御经济放缓的一种手段，即使这可能导致通胀率上升。
乔治·梅森大学科斯特洛商学院金融学教授德里克·霍斯特迈尔说:“美联储很难平衡。”“他们必须权衡就业增长放缓的预期和通胀预期。我认为他们正在权衡这一切。”
期货市场也在期待降息。投资者认为降息25个基点的可能性接近96%CME FedWatch工具，衡量市场情绪的指标。
自美联储上次调整利率以来，已经过去了五次会议和八个月。联邦基金利率保持在4.25%至4.5%之间，保留了大部分为应对疫情时代的一轮通胀而大幅上调的利率。
美联储受到双重任务的指导，既要控制通胀，又要实现就业最大化。
最近几个月，央行对关税上调导致的通胀死灰复燃表示担忧。进口商通常会以提价的形式转嫁一部分更高的税负。
一;一个通货膨胀报告然而，本周早些时候的数据低于经济学家的预期，驳斥了政策制定者最糟糕的担忧。通胀率与上月持平，比美联储2%的目标利率高出不到一个百分点。
理论上，低于预期的通胀率使美联储可以降息，而不必担心潜在需求提振导致的价格飙升。
“这些通胀数据给了美联储他们需要开始削减的数据，”乔治梅森大学科斯特洛商学院的金融学教授德里克·霍斯特迈尔告诉美国广播公司新闻。
与此同时，经济学家表示，劳动力市场的夏季降温可能会给担心失业率可能上升的央行行长们敲响警钟。
在截至7月份的三个月里，雇主平均增加了约35，000个工作岗位，这标志着前三个月每月增加约128，000个工作岗位的大幅放缓美国劳工统计局本月早些时候说。
马萨诸塞大学经济学教授杰拉德·爱泼斯坦说:“这些就业统计数据显示经济增长速度在放缓。"作为回应，美联储可能会选择降息."
经济学家承认，关税引发的通胀效应可能会滞后于政策出台，让政策制定者对价格水平产生一种被误导的舒适感。核心通胀率——剔除不稳定的食品和能源价格的价格指标——在7月份有所上升，表明许多商品的通胀率连续三个月上升。
“最近几个月，我们的通货膨胀率确实有所上升，”费代克说。“这只是伴随着相对恶化的劳动力市场。”
自特朗普上任以来，他一再敦促央行降低利率，称该政策将提振经济表现，并减少政府债务的利息支付。
“杰罗姆‘太晚了’鲍威尔现在必须降息，”特朗普周二在一篇社交媒体帖子中说，他指的是美联储主席，就在有利的通胀报告发布几个小时后。"他总是太迟造成的损害是无法估量的."
最近几周，特朗普还抨击鲍威尔，理由是中央银行25亿美元的建筑改造项目成本超支。
美联储将支出超支归因于不可预见的成本增加，称其建筑翻新最终将“通过允许董事会整合其大部分业务，随着时间的推移降低成本”，根据央行的网站.
美联储是由国会设立的独立机构。联邦法律允许总统出于“原因”解除美联储主席的职务——尽管从来没有总统这样做过。鲍威尔的主席任期将于2026年5月到期。
接受美国广播公司新闻采访的经济学家不同意特朗普的施压活动是否会影响美联储下个月的利率决定。一些分析师表示，部分由于特朗普的敦促，央行行长可能倾向于降息，而其他人则表示，美联储将仅根据经济数据做出决定。
“至少，这可能会让他们倾向于削减，”爱泼斯坦说。
就鲍威尔而言，他拒绝接受政治干预美联储政策决定的观点。
鲍威尔上个月说，政治独立让央行行长“能够以专注于数据、不断发展的前景和风险平衡——而不是政治因素——的方式做出这些极具挑战性的决定。”
Is the Fed ready to cut interest rates? Experts weigh in
PresidentDonald Trumpthis week renewed his call for lower interest rates after a freshinflation readingcame in lower than economists had expected.
The Federal Reserve has defied Trump’s pressure campaign for months, however, opting tohold interest rates steadyas policymakers observe potential tariff-induced inflation.
That posture will likely shift when central bankers meet next month, economists told ABC News, predicting a quarter-point interest rate cut.
A weakjobs reportearlier this month revealed a sharp slowdown of the labor market, which could prompt the Fed to reduce borrowing costs as a means of warding off an economic slowdown, even if it opens up the possibility of higher inflation.
"The Fed has a difficult balancing act," Derek Horstmeyer, a finance professor at George Mason University's Costello College of Business. "They have to weigh an expectation of slower job growth against an expectation of inflation. I think they’re weighing all of it."
Futures markets are also expecting a rate cut. Investors peg the chances of a quarter-point interest rate cut at nearly 96%, according to theCME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Five meetings and eight months have elapsed since the Fed last adjusted interest rates. The federal funds rate stands between 4.25% and 4.5%, preserving much of a sharp increase imposed in response to a pandemic-era bout of inflation.
The Fed is guided by a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment.
In recent months, the central bank has voiced concern about a rekindling of inflation due to elevated tariffs. Importers typically pass along a share of the higher tax burden in the form of price hikes.
Aninflation reportearlier this week came in lower than economists expected, however, rebuking policymakers' worst fears. Inflation held steady from the previous month and clocked in less than a percentage point higher than the Fed’s target rate of 2%.
In theory, lower-than-expected inflation allows the Fed to cut interest rates without significant concern about a spike in prices as result of the potential boost in demand.
"These inflation numbers give the Fed the numbers they need to start cutting," Derek Horstmeyer, a finance professor at George Mason University's Costello College of Business, told ABC News.
Meanwhile, the summertime cooldown of the labor market could set off alarm bells for central bankers wary of a possible rise in the unemployment rate, economists said.
Employers added an average of about 35,000 jobs over three months ending in July, which marks a major slowdown from roughly 128,000 jobs added monthly over the prior three months, theU.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticssaid earlier this month.
"These job statistics show there’s been a slowdown in the economy," Gerald Epstein, a professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. "The Fed will probably choose to make a cut in response."
Economists acknowledged that tariff-induced inflation effects could lag behind the onset of the policy, giving policymakers a misguided sense of comfort with price levels. Core inflation – a price measure that strips out erratic food and energy prices – ticked higher in July, indicating three consecutive months of rising inflation for many goods.
"We do have an increase in inflation in recent months," Fedyk said. "It’s just coupled with a relatively worsening labor market."
Since Trump took office, he has repeatedly urged the central bank to lower interest rates, saying the policy would boost economic performance and reduce interest payments on government debt.
"Jerome 'Too Late' Powell must NOW lower the rate," Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday, referring to the Fed chair, just hours after the favorable inflation report. "The damage he has done by always being Too Late is incalculable."
In recent weeks, Trump has also slammed Powell, citing cost overruns tied to the central bank’s $2.5 billion building renovation project.
The Fed attributes spending overruns to unforeseen cost increases, saying that its building renovation will ultimately "reduce costs over time by allowing the Board to consolidate most of its operations," according to the central bank'swebsite.
The Fed is an independent agency established by Congress. Federal law allows the president to remove the Fed chair for "cause" -- though no president has ever done so. Powell's term as chair is set to expire in May 2026.
Economists who spoke to ABC News disagreed about whether Trump’s pressure campaign could influence the Fed’s rate decision next month. Some analysts said central bankers may lean toward a rate cut in part due to Trump’s urgings, while others said the Fed would make its decision based solely on economic data.
"At the margin, it may tip them toward a cut," Epstein said.
For his part, Powell has rejected the notion of political interference in the Fed's policy decisions.
Political independence, Powell said last month, gives central bankers the "ability to make these very challenging decisions in ways that are focused on the data, the evolving outlook, the balance of risks – and not on political factors."
